Mr Hu finally goes to Washington

Why do Americans welcome a dictator? Are people so blind to see that the Chinese Communist Party has killed millions of people in China? Shame on democracy of the western countries.

Apr 12th 2006 BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

A state visit in Chinese eyes, but not in America's. Don't expect a love-in.

"VERY positive and complex." That is how George Bush ambivalently characterised his country's relations with China this week. When his counterpart, Hu Jintao, pays his first presidential visit to the White House on April 20th, Mr Bush will struggle to manage a relationship that many in Washington view more simply as negative. The two leaders are anxious to avoid letting their disputes seriously damage ties. But much will depend on how they manage opinion at home.
This is a particularly sensitive time. The approach of America's mid-term elections in November is encouraging both Democrats and Republicans to play to voters' concerns about the threat China's rapid economic rise is said to pose to American jobs. The administration wants China to help check the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. China wants America to restrain Taiwan, where the approach of presidential elections in 2008 is already threatening to whip up new turbulence in the island's uneasy relationship with the mainland. Neither side thinks the other is delivering enough.

Mr Hu is especially keen for this visit, his first to Washington since he became Communist Party chief in 2002 and president in 2003, to establish his credentials at home as a statesman. He should have gone last September, but the trip was blown off course by Hurricane Katrina. However, Mr Bush, anxious not to appear too friendly with a country that so many Americans view with suspicion, is not laying out the full red carpet. Chinese officials insist on calling this a state visit. The White House is not using that level of protocol. State visits involve a formal dinner; Mr Hu will only be given lunch.
Such niceties are important to Mr Hu. Like Mr Bush, he is under pressure at home. The party is beginning to gear up for its five-yearly congress next year and Mr Hu needs all the authority he can muster to ensure that he succeeds in placing his protégés in key positions. As in America's Congress, there is growing anxiety in China about the impact of globalisation. Mr Hu wants to look strong in the presence of Mr Bush. This means not appearing to capitulate to America's trade demands.

But Mr Hu is making conciliatory gestures. China does not want a trade war that could damage its biggest overseas market. To help reduce America's record trade deficit with China, valued by the Americans at $202 billion last year (see chart), a Chinese delegation last week embarked on a buying tour in America that is expected to result in some $15 billion-worth of deals. As part of this, on April 11th, China signed a deal agreeing to buy 80 Boeing planes worth $4.6 billion, and said it would resume buying American beef, banned since 2003 because of mad-cow fears.
In response to American concerns about rampant violations of intellectual-property rights in China, the Chinese authorities have staged a show of resolve in recent weeks. Some shops in Beijing selling pirated DVDs have been closed. Banners have appeared on the streets urging citizens not to buy them. In late March the government ordered computer manufacturers to pre-load licensed operating-system software onto machines to prevent retailers using pirated versions.

Such shows of goodwill are unlikely to have much impact. Mr Bush has urged Mr Hu to use his visit to make some announcement on China's undervalued currency. But there is little likelihood that Mr Hu will say anything important about this. In recent weeks, China has allowed the yuan to appreciate a little more quickly, but shows no desire to take the big steps demanded by those American politicians who argue that it is as much as 40% undervalued. Mr Hu's primary concern is about stability at home, and a rapid revaluation would threaten this. Fortunately for him, Mr Bush, unlike some members of Congress, appears disinclined to take up cudgels. The release of a Treasury report, which could accuse China of manipulating its currency, has been delayed until after the visitor leaves. Even in Congress cooler heads might still prevail. Last month two senators withdrew a bill that threatened 27.5% tariffs on Chinese imports if China failed to revalue its currency by a large margin.

Other fence-mending exercises are under way. Mr Hu's officials have responded with a show of enthusiasm to the Bush administration's suggestions, first made last year, that China's role in the world should be one of "responsible stakeholder". China likes to draw attention to its mediating role in efforts to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear-weapons programme. It tried to take advantage of a private forum in Tokyo this week, which senior North Korean and American officials attended, to persuade North Korea to resume negotiations. But these efforts appeared unsuccessful. Likewise, China says the Iranian nuclear dispute should be resolved without sanctions or force. But it has not publicly threatened to use its UN veto to block any American attempt to escalate pressure on Iran.

In recent months, China has even shown tentative signs of wanting progress in talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama and of the Vatican. Few expect breakthroughs soon. But in a gesture clearly aimed at pleasing Mr Bush, China last month allowed a Tibetan nun who had been imprisoned for 14 years for her outspoken support of the Dalai Lama to go to America for medical treatment. Still, Mr Hu has shown no real willingness to ease his suppression of dissent. Worried that rapid economic and social change could trigger instability, he is tightening controls. Mr Bush recently described China as a "big opportunity for democracy". On this, Mr Hu will disappoint him.